Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election has nothing to do with stability or Brexit – it’s a trick to outmanoeuvre the Crown Prosecution Service’s investigation into Tory Election Fraud at the 2015 General Election.
Last June I wrote about the excellent investigative journalism carried out by Channel 4 and the Daily Mirror regarding Tory Election Fraud at the 2015 General Election.
Many media outlets still feel uncomfortable talking about this subject, primarily because the Crown Prosecution Service have not yet published their judgement on the 20+ Conservative MP’s who were investigated over election fraud. Commenting on alleged criminal activity is always risky for the press, especially when it comes to MPs (who are quite adept at taking libel cases).
To recap – it’s alleged that over 20 Tory MPs benefited from having national campaign resources diverted to their local campaigns in the 2015 general election, thus overspending on their campaigns. Electoral law is supposed to prevent candidates from outspending their rivals and ensure that the outcome of an election is a democratic one, not influenced by the relative wealth of a candidate or their party.
With only a 12 seat majority, if even half of those Tory MPs were found to have broken the law, then the Government could end up losing its majority through a series of by-elections.
The Tories aren’t stupid – they know the risks here. They may have even had some private indication of the CPS judgement. Clearly, Theresa May and her colleagues have concluded that the only way to prevent losing their majority in the electoral fraud fallout is to call a general election.
She would not have taken this decision lightly and in many ways (despite the polls) it represents a nuclear option for her politically, for a number of reasons:
- Polling accuracy: While the polls may currently show an historically high lead for the Tories, the pollsters’ reputations have not yet recovered from their failure to accurately predict the outcome of either the EU referendum or the 2015 general election. In the past, the pollsters have admitted that their main error was in underestimating Tory support and overestimating Labour support. It’s quite possible that after two major failures, the pollsters have now adjusted their methods and could be (conversely) overestimating Tory support and underestimating Labour support.
- Lib Dems: It’s claimed that the Tories recently commissioned some private polling – which showed them losing dozens of seats to the Lib Dems if a snap election were called. Back in 2015 nearly all the gains made by the Tories came at the expense of the Lib Dems. If the Lib Dems can win back some of the support they lost in 2015, they could cost the Tories some key seats.
- Election fatigue: The UK had a general election in 2015, a referendum in 2016 and now another general election in 2017. If voters feel that they are being made fools of by trotting out to the polls on the whim of a leader who simply wants to shore up their power, they may well vent their frustration at the ballot box.
- Brexit no longer being the only issue: The Tories seem adamant that this election is a simply a mechanism to give them a mandate to carry out their vision of Brexit. But the public, who (according to some recent polling) feel Brexit is a ‘done and dusted’ issue, may see this election as a chance to return to familiar themes – like the economy, housing and the NHS. Regardless of their own hyperbole, the Tories do not have a good record on these things. They have made no headway into the housing crisis since coming to power in 2010 and the public still do not trust them on the NHS. They claim to be the party of financial competence and yet they have already abandoned all the financial commitments they set for themselves in 2015.
And yet, regardless of all this uncertainty, Theresa May has chosen to call a snap general election. In the context of the risks they face around the electoral fraud case, it’s clear that this election has nothing to do with stability or Brexit. Instead, it’s a trick to make sure the Tories keep their majority in parliament and stay in government even if they are found guilty of breaking the law and cheating their way to power in 2015.
Last June I said that it was the job of citizen journalists, bloggers and anyone willing to spread the word to keep this story alive and move it into the public consciousness. That sentiment applies again now – otherwise, without the mainstream media’s involvement, this story runs the risk of disappearing without a trace.
So please do your bit – tell your friends and family about what’s really going on, use the hashtag #ToryElectionFraud and get the truth out there. The public need to understand why they being dragged out to the ballot box for a farce of an election – an election that is nothing but a smokescreen for a devious political party who ignore the law and believe they can buy, lie and trick their way to power.